Sao Paulo/Bilbao at the Halfway Mark

The Sao Paulo half of the Grand Slam Masters has finished and this is a good time to take stock of the tournament before the tournament resumes in Bilbao. Here is a progress report on the players in order of descending rating.

Magnus Carlsen 

The world #1 is at 50%. Magnus is the greatest exponent of chess 'serve and volley'- he just keeps playing and setting practical problems for his opponents. Nowadays, Magnus faces two difficult challenges.
1) His uncompromising style requires 100% physical and mental fitness and concentration. Occasionally even Magnus falters and shows that he is only human. At Sao Paulo, he had some winning chances against Aronian before the game fizzled out in a draw. More tragically, he gave a textbook performance of outplaying an opponent as Black against Vallejo. However, at the critical moment he missed the win and soon after overlooked a tactic to lose a piece and the game.
2) Many players are now content just to hold a draw against Magnus.  In Sao Paulo, all his opponents played without any ambition. When a strong grandmaster is content with a draw, Magnus has to work extra hard to create winning chances.

Bilbao prediction: Magnus is still very much in the running and I predict he will finish on +2.

V. Anand

The world champion has already achieved so much in his long and illustrious career. Anand nowadays seems happy to just play the game and enjoy himself without worrying too much about the result. While this has freed him of psychological demons that plagued him in the past, it does mean that he isn't striving for the maximum. A draw is the typical outcome with either color but his keen sense of danger means he loses very rarely.  In Sao Paulo he had three Whites and all his opponents chose the Ruy Lopez. All three games should have been drawn but he overestimated the position against Ivanchuk. A grind against Vallejo led to 50% at the halfway mark.

Bilbao prediction: With three Blacks it will be difficult to score well and I predict Anand will finish on +1.

Levon Aronian

The likeable Armenian has steadily climbed the rating ladder to become the only player in the post-Kramnik/Topalov and pre-Carlsen generations to reach 2800. The Aronian of today plays sophisticated positional chess and is less reliant on the tactically messy complications of his younger days. He seems to have shrugged off the Candidates elimination and is back to his usual self. At Sao Paulo he scored the obligatory win against Vallejo but balanced this with a loss against Ivanchuk to be at 50%.

Bilbao prediction: Aronian to finish on +1.

Vassily Ivanchuk

Vassily is the most complex among the world elite, equally capable of beating or losing to anyone. In Sao Paulo he was the revelation of the tournament playing imaginative chess as always. In round 1, the rare 1.d4 e6 2.c4 Bb4+ (a Keres favourite) led to a precisely played draw against Nakamura. In round 2, he surprised Anand with the Schliemann Ruy Lopez. Perhaps he had prepared against this as White for his recent match with Radjabov at the World Cup and in typical Ivanchuk fashion decided to try it from the other side! At any rate, the decision worked like a charm as Anand avoided the critical lines and went astray in the middlegame. Then in round 3 Ivanchuk outplayed Vallejo with the English before the hair raising encounter against Aronian. This was undoubtedly the most entertaining game from Sao Paulo. Aronian's reckless play was convincingly refuted by Ivanchuk who then let his advantage slip in time pressure. However, just when the draw was likely, Aronian blitzed his moves in Ivanchuk's time shortage and blundered. In round 5 the fairytale performance unfortunately came to an end. Ivanchuk appeared surprised by Carlsen's choice of the French and played very passively and ultimately lost. To add insult to injury, he and his wife were robbed just outside the hotel when leaving for the airport. He was clearly deliberately targeted for winning the tournament- the robbers did not realize this was only the first half and had not collected any prize money. Let's hope he recovers from his tragic experience and sparkles in Spain.

Bilbao prediction: Nerves will continue to be a problem and Ivanchuk will finish on +1.

Hikaru Nakamura

The American #1 (or #2) began the year wonderfully with a fine win at Wijk aan Zee. Since then, he has struggled and had a series of patchy performances. Hopefully he has now sorted out his personal problems and is back to playing the position rather than trying too hard to win. In Sao Paulo, Nakamura was the star together with Ivanchuk. He was the only undefeated player and not only that was in no danger of losing any of his games. To achieve such a performance against Carlsen, Aronian and Anand, the three 2800s as well as Crown Prince Ivanchuk deserves the highest praise. The expected win against Vallejo has placed him at +1.

Bilbao prediction: A strong contender for first, and I predict he will finish on +2.

Francisco Vallejo Pons

Paco is in the unenviable position of being the invited local by the organizers. In the past, this has provided invaluable experience to players like Miguel Illescas at Linares and Loek van Wely at Wijk aan Zee. Nevertheless, it is difficult to play in an environment where everyone else considers you a punching bag and a victim that must be beaten.

Paco's performance in Sao Paulo suggests his form is poor. Everyone but Carlsen defeated him and Carlsen too was unlucky to convert a winning position into a loss. It is unlikely that the home ground advantage in Bilbao will prove to be significant and more misery can be predicted.

Bilbao prediction: More losses and a couple of draws.